In this article, we will look at the 10 Best Falling Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds.
Are The S&P 500 Gains Coming Towards An End?
Analysts at Goldman Sachs on October 21st released a note forecasting that the S&P 500 average annual return of 13% for the past 10 years might come down to just 3% for the next decade. The estimates by Goldman Sachs are far below Wall Street’s estimates as analysts on Wall Street expect the index performance to range from 4.4% to 7.4%, with an average of 6%.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs based their forecast on the concern that market concentration within the S&P 500 has been at a record high in its 100-year history. They mentioned that the top 10 largest stocks of the index currently account for more than 36% of the overall index. These top 10 constituents of the index have increased in size due to exceptional earnings growth over the past 2 years. The Magnificent Seven alone have at least doubled their earnings year-over-year during the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
However, analysts at the firm believe that historical evidence shows it is extremely challenging for companies to sustain high levels of sales growth and profit margins for more than a decade. They also noted that the sales growth of the Magnificent Seven has already started to fall from the accelerated pace of their growth during the past 2 years.
On the bright side, analysts pointed out that growth is expected to pick up for the remaining stocks on the index. They expect double-digit earnings growth for these remaining 493 stocks over the next 5 quarters.
Read Also: 10 Best Depressed Stocks To Buy Heading into 2025 and 8 Best Small-Cap Growth Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.
Sylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs CEO and CIO joined CNBC on October 22 for an interview to talk about the earnings season progress and also shared her point of view regarding the recent note from Goldman Sachs. She noted that we have seen around 14% of the S&P 500 that have reported their earnings and, out of those, 79% beat expectations. She thinks this is a solid start to the earnings season. Jablonski also mentioned that the bar for some of the companies has also come down, for instance in July analysts were talking about 6% to 7% year-over-year growth, and now we are looking at around 5% growth and companies have been achieving it for the most part.
While talking about Goldman Sachs’s recent note, she mentioned that the shrink in annual return by the index depends on a few factors. While the valuations are high, the earnings are strong and profits are also growing, thereby the high valuations have started to feel justified. However, it only remains justified until the valuations become lofty again. Jablonski pointed out that while the Magnificent Seven stocks have been the top performers of the last decade, we are going to see a broadening of the market where the performance would come from the remaining stocks in the index. She thinks that this transition of growth from the top constituents of the index to smaller stocks might affect the annual returns. However, AI is going to drive the index for the next 5 to 10 years. Jablonski mentioned utility facilities and energy sector companies having grown in triple digits due to artificial intelligence.
Lastly, Jablonski clarified that she is not bearing on tech or semiconductors but the leaders in the S&P 500 are expected to change with Magnificent Seven slowing down in terms of the stellar growth they have posted in the past.
With that let’s talk about the 10 best falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
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Our Methodology
To curate the list of the 10 best falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds, we used the Finviz stock screener and Yahoo Finance. We defined falling stocks as those trading within 0% to 3% of their 52-week lows. Using the Finviz stock screener, we got an aggregated list of stocks that fit our criteria. Next, we ranked these stocks based on the number of hedge funds holding each stock during Q2 2024, as per Insider Monkey’s database. All indicators were recorded on October 21st, 2024. Please note that the list is ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10 Best Falling Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds
10. NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV)
52 Week Range: $15.27 – $21.23
Current Share Price: $15.38
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
First on our list of the 10 best-falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds is NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV). Although it is currently trading close to its 52-week low, 29 hedge funds had stakes in the company in Q2 2024, amounting to $1.34 billion, as per Insider Monkey’s database.
It operates in the energy industry, where the company designs and manufactures large machinery and systems necessary for drilling oil and gas. Its machinery can extract oil and gas from both onshore and offshore locations. Moreover, the company also provides equipment for post-drilling maintenance of the wells. It helps drilling companies rent out heavy machinery rather than having to buy it outright.
The rising adoption of NOV Inc’s (NYSE:NOV) technologies resulted in increasing market share for the company, with international markets comprising 62% of the total revenue during the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Both Energy Product and Services revenue and Energy Equipment Revenue were up 2% and 8%, respectively, year-over-year, offsetting the softness in the North American market.
Overall the revenue of the company grew 6% during the same time to reach $2.2 billion during the second quarter. The company also generated a significant net income of $226 million which was up by almost $71 million year-over-year.
What’s more impressive is its free cash flow generation which came in at $350 million for the quarter with an operating cash flow of $432 million. This indicates that the company has maintained its strong position internationally and that softening in the North American market is not affecting its profitability.
Ariel Appreciation Fund stated the following regarding NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Alternatively, drilling and production equipment provider, NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) weighed on returns over the period despite the company’s solid business fundamentals. NOV delivered a top- and bottom-line earnings beat, highlighted by rising demand in offshore and international markets, strong backlog order conversion, effective cost controls and robust free cash flow generation. Although a softening oil outlook in North America drove management to modestly lower full year guidance, the company continues to return capital to shareholders through a recent 50% dividend hike and $1 billion share repurchase authorization. As NOV right-sizes its onshore business and grows a more efficient offshore business, we believe the market will recognize the long-term value and re-rate the shares.”
9. HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO)
52 Week Range: $43.17 – $64.16
Current Share Price: $44.46
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) is an independent energy company based in Dallas, Texas. It engages in producing and selling various kinds of fuels and lubricants. The company produces gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and renewable diesel which is essential for vehicles. It supplies fuel to more than 1,300 independent Sinclair-branded stations throughout the United States. Moreover, the company also supplies base oil and other specialized lubricants in the United States, the Netherlands, and Canada, and supplies it to more than 80 countries around the globe.
The company, in its second quarter of fiscal 2024, generated net income attributable to shareholders of $152 million or $0.79 per share. Its adjusted EBITDA of $406 million was significantly lower when compared to $868 million in Q2 of fiscal 2023. The decrease was primarily due to lower adjusted refinery gross margins.
However, its Renewable segment remains a differentiating factor for the company not only because it focuses on cleaner alternatives to traditional diesel, and is made from renewable sources like recycled fats and oils. The segment also delivered a positive adjusted EBITDA of $2 million which was up significantly from negative $11 last year.
Although HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) is trading close to its 52-week low, it was held by 30 hedge fund holders with total stakes improving from $362.7 million in Q1 2024 to $392.1 million during the second quarter of 2024. It ranks as the 9th best-falling stock to buy according to hedge funds.
8. Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR)
52 Week Range: $32.53 – $49.14
Current Share Price: $32.96
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 37
Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) ranks as the 8th best-falling stock to buy according to hedge funds. It is trading close to its 52-week low, however, 37 hedge funds held stakes in the stock in Q2 2024, as per Insider Monkey’s database, indicating bullish sentiment.
The company operates as an independent oil and gas-producing company in the United States and Canada. The company searches for new oil and gas-rich areas at onshore and offshore locations to extract and sell energy resources.
Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR), has been actively managing its financial strategies and operational projects in recent quarters. Management has remained focused on achieving Murphy 3.0, which is a strategic initiative aimed at enhancing shareholder returns while maintaining a focus on reducing long-term debt. During the second quarter of fiscal 2024, the company repurchased $50 million of its senior notes as a move to bring its long-term debt to $1 billion. It also repurchased 56 million shares in the second quarter and an additional 44 million shares by early August, indicating its efforts regarding Murphy 3.0.
In terms of production, the company produced an average of 181,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil making up 50% of that volume, exceeding their guidance. The second quarter revenue came in at $746 million with a net income of $128 million. Looking ahead, management plans on returning 50% of its adjusted free cash flow to shareholders and utilizing the rest 50% for improving its balance sheet to reduce debt.
7. BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP)
52 Week Range: $30.52 – $40.40
Current Share Price: $31.26
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) is a major energy company based in the United Kingdom. It is involved in various operations related to the oil and gas industry. The company engages in the production of natural gas and other low-carbon initiatives such as solar, wind, and hydrogen production. It also extracts crude oil from more than 60 places around the globe.
Management aims to transition the company from an International Oil Company (IOC) to an International Energy Company (IEC). To accomplish this it is focused on six key strategic priorities including reduced emissions, efficiency, and Return on Average Capital Employed. Its focus on reducing emissions resulted in a 40% reduction in scope 1 and scope 2 emissions as per its February report.
During the second quarter of fiscal 2024, BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) reported Group Underlying Replacement Profit of $2.8 billion which was up slightly subsequently. Moreover, the company also reported a significant quarter-over-quarter increase of $3.1 billion in operating cash flow to reach $8.1 billion during the quarter. Management also announced a 10% increase in dividends and indicated significant share buyback in the upcoming quarters.
Another important highlight for the company came in as it reduced its net debt by $1.4 billion to bring its debt down to $22.6 billion. Moving forward, BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) is currently experiencing positive developments in its renewable energy initiatives, particularly related to D3 Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). D3 RIN has shown robust performance, with average pricing in the second quarter reaching $3.19 per RIN, indicating significant demand for renewable natural gas used in transportation. As a result, its Arkea offering, which focuses on Renewable Natural Gas (RNG), has also witnessed an increase in demand for sustainable fuels.
The stock ranks as the 7th best-falling stock to buy according to hedge funds. It is currently trading close to its 52-week low however, 38 hedge funds had stakes in the company during the second quarter of 2024, as per Insider Monkey’s database.
6. Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE)
52 Week Range: $32.49 – $52.15
Current Share Price: $32.65
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE) is an offshore drilling contractor that serves the oil and gas industry. The company specializes in drilling beneath the ocean with its fleet of ships and rigs designed for the very purpose. Its portfolio includes around 32 offshore drilling units which are divided into 19 units of Floaters and 13 units of Jackups. The company operates in various regions including Africa, Asia, the Middle East, the Gulf of Mexico, and South America.
On September 4, Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE) announced the successful acquisition of Diamond Offshore Drilling as a strategic move that significantly improved its position in the drilling industry. The acquisition resulted in one of the largest fleets of 7th-generation dual-BOP drillships, thereby enhancing the company’s capabilities. Moreover, it also added a significant backlog of around $2 billion for the company taking its overall backlog to $6.7 billion as of October 2nd, 2024.
Noble Corporation plc (NYSE:NE) demonstrated its financial strength during the fiscal 2024 second-quarter results. The contract drilling revenue of the company was around $693 million indicating an 8.51% increase year-over-year. Moreover, the company also improved its adjusted EBITDA margins from 29% in Q1 of fiscal 2024 to 39% during Q2.
The growing backlog for the company and year-over-year increase in drilling revenue indicates its ability to effectively land and execute new contracts. Although the stock was trading close to its 52-week low it was still held by 38 hedge funds in Q2 2024 as per Insider Monkey’s database. Thereby making it one of the best falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Carillon Scout Mid Cap Fund made the following comment about Noble Corporation Plc (NYSE:NE) in its Q3 2023 investor letter:
“Noble Corporation Plc (NYSE:NE), an offshore contract driller, benefited from improved sentiment regarding the offshore drilling business as higher day rates, the all-in daily costs of renting a drilling rig, were reported across the industry. The supply and demand for offshore rigs has tightened considerably.”
5. Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL)
52 Week Range: $49.62 – $84.20
Current Share Price: $50.80
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39
Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) is another offshore drilling company that ranks 5th on our list of best-falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds. The company provides various types of rigs that enable companies to extract oil and natural gas from the ocean floor. Its fleet comprises ultra-deepwater drillships, semisubmersibles, and jack-up rigs. The company has an international presence with significant operations in the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East.
Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) has been focused on implementing its commercial strategy to improve its contract order backlog. The strategy has led to an improved order backlog which stood at $4.3 billion as of July 29, indicating a 42% increase from the prior year. The increase in backlog also represented the seventh consecutive quarter of backlog growth indicating the continued success for the company.
The second quarter of fiscal 2024, came in with a 99% revenue efficiency across its fleet, indicating no lost time incidents. Moreover, the net income of the company improved from $26 million during the first quarter to $151 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Management attributed the increase in income to higher utilization and average daily revenue for both its floater and jack-up fleets.
In addition to the net income, revenue also improved from $525 million to $610 million subsequently. Looking ahead, the management of Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) is focused on maximizing its profitability by ensuring high utilization of its active rigs and securing advantageous contracts.
Praetorian Capital stated the following regarding Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“I have always believed that the only way to substantially outperform is to run a highly concentrated portfolio. When things are working, they tend to work beautifully. The flip side is that there will be times when this high level of portfolio concentration becomes a headwind to performance. To illustrate this point, during the first nine months of the year, in Dollar terms, the Fund has produced approximately $21.0 million of total P&L (before management fees). However, that figure is somewhat disingenuous as three large positions (our physical uranium entities, Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL) along with Valaris warrants, and St. Joe) produced a loss of approximately $20.5 million. More importantly, these three positions represented approximately 49.7% of our approximately $350.2 million of capital at the end of September. Not only did these three positions cost us money, but they also tied up substantial capital. As you can imagine, it’s hard to swim fast when you’re dragging an anchor.
During September, I dedicated substantial time to the first two of these positions, by attending the World Nuclear Association meet-up in London, followed by the Pareto Energy conference in Oslo. As far as I’m concerned, the theses behind our uranium and Valaris positions are quite intact—however, the timing of the next move higher remains uncertain. Meanwhile, St. Joe continues to suffer with many other housing names, despite the fact that it should be an inflation beneficiary on account of its large land bank. …” (Click here to read the full text)
4. Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL)
52 Week Range: $27.53 – $42.15
Current Share Price: $28.30
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 41
Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) is one of the major players in the energy sector with operations running in around 70 countries. They provide various products and services to help energy companies maximize their production throughout the lifecycle of the reservoir. The company operates through two major segments including the Completion and Production Segment and the Drilling and Evaluation Segment.
The Completion and Production segment provides key services including cementing, and stimulation services, which include techniques like hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to increase the flow of oil and gas from the reservoir, artificial lift, and production enhancement. On the other hand, the Drilling and Evaluation deals with drilling fluids, wellbore placement, and reservoir evaluation.
Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) differentiates itself from its counterparts due to its focus on technology and data-driven platforms. Its portfolio of advanced technologies includes iCruise, iStar, and LOGIX, which are designed to enhance drilling operations and efficiency in the energy sector. Management noted that demand for advanced technology solutions is rising in the international market. The international revenue for the company contributed $3.4 billion during the second quarter of fiscal 2024, indicating an 8% increase year-over-year, with 10% growth in Latin America.
Overall, the second quarter of fiscal 2024, indicated robust financial performance. Revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2024, was $5.8 billion representing a 0.6% increase year-over-year. Management was not only able to maintain strong operating margins of 18% during the quarter but also grew its net income by 16.23% year-over-year to $709 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2024.
Although the stock has been trading close to its 52-week low, however, 41 hedge funds held stakes in the company during Q2 2024, up from 38 hedge funds during the first quarter as per Insider Monkey’s database. Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) is the 4th best-falling stock to buy according to hedge funds.
Carillon Eagle Mid Cap Growth Fund stated the following regarding Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) provides equipment and services to the global energy industry. The company’s shares underperformed during the quarter, largely due to downward pressure on crude oil and natural gas prices. Despite this recent move, ongoing discipline among North American shale producers could continue supporting relatively healthy activity growth at current commodity price levels, which should provide stability to service providers such as Haliburton. The company is also poised to benefit from the ongoing, multi-year international and offshore upstream investment cycle that is less dependent on short-term swings in commodity prices.”
3. Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG)
52 Week Range: $77.96 – $168.07
Current Share Price: $80.41
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 42
Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) is a discount retailer that sells a wide range of products at lower prices. They deal in retail selling of consumable products, seasonal items, home products, apparel, and much more. They offer products of well-known brands at affordable prices across the United States.
The company reported its second-quarter results for fiscal 2024 on August 29, indicating a mixed performance with some growth and market challenges. While Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) reported net income growth of 4.2% year-over-year to $10.2 billion during the quarter however, it fell short of analysts’ expectations by $160.52 million.
Management noted that its core customer base originates from households with earnings less than $35,000 annually and the recent inflationary months have left its customer base financially strained. Regardless of the challenge, the company was able to grow its same-store sales by 0.5% during the quarter, which was driven by a 1% growth in consumer traffic and offset by a 0.5% decline in average transaction amount.
As a result of a softer market, the company has revised its guidance for Fiscal year 2024. It now expects net sales growth in the range of 4.7% to 5.3%, downgraded from the previous expectation of 6% to 6.7%.
The stock was held by 42 hedge funds in Q2 2024, as per Insider Monkey’s database, and is one of the best-falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund stated the following regarding Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Consumer Staples. The convenience store operator Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) was our worst performer during the quarter. The retailer, with more than 19,000 stores, 80% of which are in rural towns with populations of less than 20,000, recently slashed its 2024 earnings guidance, sparking a late-summer sell-off.
Same-store comparable sales and margin guidance were cut meaningfully, implying a significant slowdown in the second half of the year. While some of the troubles may be due to the financial challenges of its core customers, with average incomes of just $35,000, Dollar General is also losing market share because of Walmart’s initiative to reduce entry-level pricing. Management acknowledged a need to invest in promotions to stimulate demand, but they refute concerns that DG needs to invest more in store-level labor.
We exited the position and harvested the tax losses, but we continue to monitor the company’s fundamentals. We’re looking for comparable sales to stabilize driven by promotional activity, a boost in labor investments, and management to downsize store expansion plans to improve free cash flow generation and accelerate deleveraging efforts.”
2. Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH)
52 Week Range: $282.96 – $423.92
Current Share Price: $289.95
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 45
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) is a managed care company that provides health insurance primarily through government programs, including Medicaid and Medicare. It is focused on providing affordable healthcare solutions and generates revenue by offering health insurance plans, which are funded by the government and the company receives payments to manage healthcare services for enrolled individuals.
As of June 30, 2024, the company served around 5.6 million members, which is an 8% increase compared to the same month a year ago. The growth in members resulted in a 17% increase in premium revenue for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) during the second quarter of fiscal 2024. The premium revenue came in at $9.4 billion for the quarter.
As Medicaid and Medicare are government-funded programs they align with the broader trend of rising health care costs thereby projecting strong enrollment and revenue growth for the company.
Management has been focused on winning new contracts to increase its enrollment number. On October 16, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) announced winning a contract to provide a new Dual Eligible Program in Michigan. The contract will increase the pool of dual-eligible beneficiaries, which are members who qualify for both Medicare and Medicaid. This expands their membership base and, consequently, their premium revenue.
Although the stock has been trading close to its 52-week low, hedge funds continued to show their interest in the company. The stock was held by 45 hedge funds in Q2 2024, up from 43 hedge funds during Q1 of 2024, as per Insider Monkey’s database. Thereby making it one of the best falling stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
Fidelity Growth Strategies Fund stated the following regarding Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“On a stock-specific basis, a larger-than-benchmark stake in Molina Healthcare, Inc. (NYSE:MOH) (-28%), a California-headquartered managed care firm, was the biggest relative detractor. The past year has been a difficult one for the managed care industry, due to rising medical costs and government reimbursements that have not kept pace. The past three months, Molina’s stock was dragged down by negative sentiment for the segment, even though its latest earnings report, in April, was better than expected.”
1. BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN)
52 Week Range: $67.75 – $99.56
Current Share Price: $69.63
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 48
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) ranks as the best-falling stock to buy according to hedge funds. It was held by 48 hedge funds in Q2 2024 with total stakes worth $2.07 billion. Viking Global was the top shareholder of the company with a position worth $581.5 million as per Insider Monkey’s database.
The company operates as a biotechnology company focused on developing and selling medications for rare genetic diseases. Their portfolio of treatments and therapies includes Vimizim, Naglazyme, Voxzogo, Roctavian, Palynziq, and Roctavian.
During the second quarter of fiscal 2024, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) reported record revenue growth. The total revenue for the quarter improved 20% year-over-year to reach $712 million. The revenue growth was driven by an increase in global demand for Voxzogo, which is a daily injection for achondroplasia, a common form of dwarfism. Voxzogo revenue for the second quarter came in at $184 million indicating a 62% increase year-over-year. Moreover, the enzyme-related therapies of the company also contributed to the record revenue by improving by 15% during the same time.
As a result of this robust performance management has increased the full-year guidance for fiscal 2024 and is now expecting revenue between $2.75 billion and $2.825 billion with operating margins between 26% and 27%. The prioritized pipeline of BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) also looks attractive with BMN 351 and BMN 349 expected to enter the clinic in early 2025.
Parnassus Value Equity Fund stated the following regarding BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“We also closed out two positions, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN), to invest in other opportunities with more potential upside. BioMarin’s risk/return profile has become less attractive due to an ill-timed drug launch and increased competition. We sold our profitable position in BioMarin in favor of other higher-conviction positions in the portfolio.”
While we acknowledge the potential of BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a promising AI stock that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.
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