In this piece, we will take a look at the 10 best consumer staples stocks to buy now.
Consumer staples stocks are for the risk averse investor and for those who like to hedge their investment portfolios. Also known as consumer defensive stocks, these are often sizeable firms that operate in industries that see stable demand during economic downturns. Some such sectors include essential retailers and pharmaceuticals, since while an economic slowdown decimates demand for pricey products such as GPUs, food and daily essentials survive simply because consumers can’t live without them.
At the same time, not only do consumer staples stocks allow investors to ride out the storm in a dark economy, but they also provide them the chance to either grow their portfolio or earn a stable income in the form of dividends. Insider Monkey looked at consumer staples stocks that pay dividends as part of our coverage of 13 Best Consumer Staples Dividend Stocks To Buy Now. In this list, the stock with the highest dividend yield had a yield of a stunning 9.69% which came on the back of a stunning 54 years of consistent dividend growth.
Like their counterparts in the consumer cyclical stock category, consumer staples stocks are also dependent for the most part on the economy. These are sizeable and stable firms that pay impressive dividends as we’ve highlighted above. However, like all other stocks, consumer staples are also dependent on the business cycle. The business or the economic cycle is divided into four phases. These are the early phase, the mid phase, the late phase, and the recessionary phase. For staples, the late and recessionary phases are the best when it comes to returns. Even though the market has produced 20% in average returns per year in the early phase since 1962, consumer staples have consistently produced the strongest returns in the recessionary phase and remain in the green during the late phase.
Analyzing data for business cycles since 1962 shows that the average returns of consumer staples stocks during the recessionary and late phases sit at ~14% and 5%, respectively. Since averages are influenced by outliers, we can also subtract the market’s performance from staples stocks’ performance and take the midpoint of the results. Doing this reveals that while during the late stage, the returns become negligible (but not negative), in a recession, they actually gain a percentage point or so to sit at 15%! Not only does this indicate that staples broadly outperform the market in a recession, but a hit rate (the percentage of time periods in the business cycle periods in different cycles over time where the sector outperformed) of 100% indicates that the performance is consistent across all business cycles since 1962.
Since there’s a stark difference in the returns offered by consumer staples stocks during different periods of a business cycle, it becomes important to try to decipher which phase we’re in right now. Determining this is no easy task, and we can use two approaches. The first of these is to see what the professionals are saying. On this front, research from investment bank Morgan Stanley shares some details. It shows that the economy has been in a downturn since last year, which is synonymous with the mid of a late stage cycle or the start of a recession. We can also read economic indicators and try to match them with what is typically observed during a stage of the economic cycle. Analyzing three data points, namely the GDP growth rate, inflation, and retail inventories shows that GDP growth slowed down to 1.4% in Q1 2024 from a far more robust 3.4% in Q4 2023; inflation in April was 2.6% for the PCE in May 2024 and still higher than the Fed’s preferred 2%, and retail inventories jumped by 1% annually in February. These three metrics indicate that we might be in the late stage of the business cycle which comes before a recession.
Shifting gears, it’s also important to see which sectors within consumer staples stock can benefit from consumer spending during an economic downturn. According to the Labor Department, the relative importance of food at home and used cars grows during a recession. These sat at 8.64 and 1.91 for data collected between 2009 and 2010, and grew from 7.66 for food and 1.77 for cars in the boom period represented by data collected between 2005 and 2006. As an exercise, you can scan our list for which stocks might benefit from an uptick in spending for these products.
While consumer staples stocks can be worthwhile investments, their share price gains tend to be more muted compared to high-growth sectors like consumer technology or electric vehicles. This is because their underlying fundamentals and business models are not typically focused on rapid expansion. For instance, one of the most popular consumer staples stock indexes maintained by the S&P is up a respectable 8% year to date and 7.55% over the past twelve months. On the flip side, the benchmark index is up by 26% over the past twelve months, while the technology heavy stock indexes have delivered as much as 31% in appreciation.
At the same time, consumer staples stocks might also be the perfect place for investors to take refuge in the current stock market environment. The S&P benchmark index’s price to earnings ratio is 21, which is near historically high levels. Data from investment bank Goldman Sachs shows that a P/E ratio of 20 places it in the 85th percentile of the index’s ratios since 1990. Overvaluation concerns for the benchmark persisted in June 2024, with the latest survey from Bloomberg News showing that the majority of the 586 market participants surveyed believed that the market was more overvalued than cash and US credit.
Keeping up with the cautious sentiment, roughly half of the participants polled also believe that the market can undergo a correction of as much as 10% this year, and 31% of the participants surveyed also believe that negative news on the AI front could lead to a selloff, with 27% holding the opinion that stocks could fall if unemployment continues to increase. Within this turmoil, one of the few sectors that Goldman Sachs believes might offer investors some stability is consumer staples as they have lagged the broader market in performance (a fact that we also noted above in the form of a 23 percentage point difference between the consumer staples and the benchmark stock indexes).
With these details in mind, let’s take a look at some top consumer staples stocks to buy. Smart money often thinks ahead, so it might be worth seeing how the hedge funds are investing as investors brace for economic impact. If you’re interested in learning more about consumer staples, then you should read Top 20 Largest Consumer Staples Companies in the World.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the best consumer staples stocks to buy, we ranked the 40 most valuable consumer staples stocks by the number of hedge funds that had bought the shares in Q1 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors In Q1 2024: 50
Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) is a well known personal grooming and care brand. The firm benefits from its sizeable market share and financial strengths, which provide it with ample room to not only grow its sales but also hedge against any economic weakness. As of December 2023, Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) had cash and equivalents of $966 million coupled with sizeable goodwill and intangible assets of a whopping $5.2 billion. The latter showcases its brand strengths, which is further bolstered by the fact that it commanded nearly 41% of the global toothpaste market as of June 2023. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) is also well known in the industry for its efficient cost management. The firm’s trailing twelve month revenue of $19.7 billion and gross profit of $11.6 billion lend it a gross margin of 58%, which shows that Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) benefits by being nimble. This is because the firm’s larger rival Procter & Gamble has a gross margin of 51% – indicating that not only does Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL) can ensure stability through its high market share but it is also taking cost control seriously.
As for future growth, Deutsche Bank raised Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL)’s share price target to $98 from $94 in April 2024 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. The bank highlighted that Q2 should see further growth from the firm, before the benefit of pricing strategies starts to ebb away in the second half of the year. Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL)’s management also shared details about how the firm is managing margins in a tough foreign exchange environment dominated by a strong US dollar. During the latest earnings call, it shared:
We still have work to do, but our balanced strategy continues to yield results, including continued growth in our global oral care shares, which leads me to my second point, which is flexibility in the P&L. Our focus on revenue growth management and driving our Funding the Growth initiatives enabled us to achieve a 60% gross margin in the quarter, despite significant headwinds from transactional foreign exchange. Our commitment to productivity in the middle of the P&L allowed us to drive 30 basis points of overhead leverage while still continuing to invest in strategic capabilities like digital, data and analytics, all topics we discussed at CAGNY. Prudent balance sheet management allowed us to deliver 18% base business earnings growth despite the year-over-year increase in interest expense and the impact from devaluations around the globe.
Most importantly, despite an expected mid-single digit negative impact from foreign exchange, we’re guiding to mid to high single digit base business earnings per share growth, and we’re doing this in the context of meaningful increases in brand investments that will set the stage for growth in the future. This is a testament to the ability of our team to consistently execute our strategy and seize growth opportunities while also preparing to better withstand the inevitable headwinds of running a global business.
9. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors In Q1 2024: 51
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) is one of the biggest make up companies in the world. However, its heft has failed to stop disappointing financial performance which has also translated into weaker share price performance. The firm’s third quarter results released in May 2024 saw it grow revenue by 5% annually to $3.94 billion – the first growth since 2022. A high focus on luxury items has hurt The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) in an inflationary era, with a 1% sales growth in the Americas providing it with a small respite. Since roughly 40% of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL)’s sales are from China and travel, the prolonged slowdown in the country has hampered investor sentiment in the firm. The stock is down by a painful 40% over the past twelve months, and the latest results also saw The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) increase its guided organic sales drop in 2024 to 1% to 2% from an earlier 1% drop to a 1% growth.
Due to its big bets on China and a focus on high end luxury, any turnaround in The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL)’s fate is dependent on improved consumer spending power and a Chinese recovery. On this front, here’s what management had to say during the latest earnings call:
For Mainland China, we returned to organic sales growth, albeit at a slower pace than expected amid an overall soft prestige beauty industry. Retail sales for prestige beauty were strong in January but moderated in February and March, due in part to the Chinese New Year considering the Valentine Day this year which limited gifts. This certainly impacted the industry but also many of our brands which have a strong presence in gifting. Our focus remains bringing irresistible newness to consumers to best create growth opportunities. Here our innovation in Estée Lauder Nutriv and Supreme franchise as well as a La Mer and M·A·C were well received across the third quarter and we have more compelling launches in the fourth quarter. One in particular from Estée Lauder Perfectionist Pro franchise is especially exciting as it is among the first product created in our China innovation labs and addresses local demand for SPF 50 plus UV protection that is suitable for sensitive and post derm procedures of the skin.
. . . In Mainland China, we expect the ongoing softness of overall prestige beauty to continue to pressure net sales. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by one point. We expect fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.18 to $0.28, an increase of over 100%. Currency translation is expected to dilute EPS by $0.01 and potential risks of business disruptions in the Middle East are expected to be dilutive by $0.03. Adjusted EPS in constant currency is expected to range between $0.19 to $0.29. For the full year, we expect organic net sales to range between a 1% to 2% decline. Currency translation is expected to be dilutive to reported net sales by one point.
