2. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 160
Jessica Inskip from StockBrokers.com recently said in a program on Schwab Network that Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is one of her top picks for 2025 because of several factors. Here is how she explained her bull thesis:
“This is going to be one of my top stock picks of the year thus far, and it goes again with that AI narrative and the AI ecosystem. The next leg that I see coming is actually AI agents. There are lots of resources and next-gen assistants, and even this Vertex AI Agent Builder that Google—or Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), has, which is going to lead that initiative and make it easier for enterprises.
We still need that Nvidia chip, and there’s still this interconnectivity among the hyperscalers, but I think AI agents are what we’re going to see transform. That’s really my theme from the AI lens for 2025, and I put Google at the forefront of that.”
The market has been ignoring Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s key secondary businesses and the stock remains undervalued despite concerns around AI search and regulatory onslaught.
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s secondary ventures in AI, autonomous driving, and other areas are making solid progress, especially in the Waymo robotaxi segment. With the 2025 EPS forecast at around $9, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could realistically achieve earnings closer to $10 if it maintains its historical outperformance rate. At a projected $10 EPS, Google’s forward P/E multiple would be approximately 17, a relatively low valuation for a diversified market leader.
What are the key drivers for Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)?
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) remains on track to reach a $100 billion revenue run rate from YouTube Ads and Google Cloud by the end of 2024. In its autonomous driving division, Waymo has shown notable progress, with paid autonomous rides growing 200% quarter-over-quarter to 150,000 weekly rides as of late October, thanks to a fleet of 700 vehicles in service since August.
This growth is significant: Waymo vehicles now average about 30.6 autonomous rides per day—substantially higher than Uber’s average of 4.18 rides per driver daily, based on Uber’s 31 million daily trips and 7.4 million drivers last quarter. This performance underscores Waymo’s competitive edge in autonomous ride volume compared to traditional ride-hailing.
Google Cloud has been expanding steadily, with revenue climbing from $13.06 billion in 2020 to $33.09 billion in 2023. Notably, Google Cloud turned profitable for the first time in 2023, posting $1.72 billion in operating profit—a significant improvement from a $5.61 billion loss in 2020. This segment’s performance continues to strengthen, with the latest quarterly revenue reaching $11.35 billion, up 35% from $8.41 billion in the same period last year.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG): Google was our top detractor in the third quarter despite reporting second quarter results that were generally in line with expectations. The company reported slightly better revenue growth in Search, which grew 14% and continues to be resilient in the face of AI challengers, and Google Cloud, which grew 29% in the quarter. Service operating income margins of 40% and Cloud operating income margins of 11% were also both ahead of investors’ expectations as management’s cost-efficiency efforts drove operating leverage. YouTube revenue growth was slightly below expectations (+13% v. +16%) driven by tougher year-over-year comparisons and some general weakness in the Brand Advertising vertical. Finally, Cap Ex in the quarter of $13.2 billion was more than expected and likely the driver of the weakness in the stock as investors grapple with how much infrastructure investment will be required to achieve Google’s AI goals.
